Sunday, June 27, 2010

Is Thome biggest waste of Twins 2010 money?

In late January the Twins signed certain future Hall-of-Famer Jim Thome to a one-year $1.5 million contract. It looked like a steal of a deal: Thome ranked the second-best designated hitter in the 2009 season in an Associated Press story, just behind Adam Lind in every geeks' new favorite Sabermetrician statistic OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage).

Is it possible the Twins wasted their money on Thome? Granted, Thome is the 15th highest paid player on the team, but there must be some way to get him in the lineup more often. Recent experiments with putting Michael Cuddyer at third base puts Jason Kubel as a starter in right field. The Cuddy at third experiment was done in National League parks during interleague play and without a DH.

Once interleague play is over, the Twins need to place Thome back as a near-everyday DH and keep Cuddyer at third because using him as a pinch hitter more often than as a starter just isn't working.

So far this season Thome has played in 49 of the Twins 74 games. He's only had 107 official plate appearances for an average of 2.69 plate appearances per game. Compare that to Jason Kubel, who has played in 66 games with 264 plate appearances (4.0 appearances per game) and Justin Morneau (4.31). Thome is being used about as often at the plate as the recently demoted Brendan Harris (2.79 PAPG).

In 2010, Thome's gone 5-for-18 (.277) with just one RBI as a pinch-hitter. He's a career .230 hitter in pinch-hit situations. Additionally, when he gets on base, Thome's pinch hitting requires another roster move. It's inevitable that when he gets on base a pinch runner needs to replace him, thereby forcing Twins manager Ron Gardenhire to think of his pinch hitting Thome as a double-switch and depletion of his bench. In short, it requires Gardenhire to only pinch-hit Thome in the eighth or ninth innings.

Thome's stats so far this season: .243, 6 HR, 19 RBI, 9 2B, 24 BB, 32 SO.

It's time to use Thome where he's best: as a designated hitter. Given the Twins persistent problem of leaving runners in scoring position, it makes sense for Gardenhire to keep Cuddyer at third and get Thome more DH at bats.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

2010 Twins Challenge

Time to test the Bullpen Catcher's Theory

This year's Twins team is shaping up to having the best beginning to a season in the team's 50-year history. The key to the 8-3 start? Certainly we could point to the power production (3rd in the AL in homeruns; 2nd in Total Bases) or the bullpen led by surprising closer replacement Jon Rauch (all 6-foot-11, 290-pounds of him).

The Twins are damn good so far. Damn good. It's hard for anyone in snowmobile land to not be thinking about how they'll be sneaking schnapps into The Bullseye come October, but there is one thing that will keep Minnesota the strongest team in the land -- starting pitching.

Here's the rotation as it stands today:
  1. Scott Baker (2-1 record, 3.38 ERA)
  2. Nick Blackburn (1-1, 5.02)
  3. Carl Pavano (2-0, 1.38)
  4. Kevin Slowey (1-1, 3.48)
  5. Francisco Liriano (1-0, 2.08)
The challenge as it's always been with these guys is to see if they can go one time through the rotation with each having his best stuff. We'll rank them on a 0-1-2 scale. 0=Did not pitch up to snuff; 1=pitched OK, not great; 2=pitched above and beyond what we expect weekly, but lived up to his hype and expectations. For instance, in Thursday's win over the Boston Red Sox, Liriano lived up to his expectations and showed he can dominate like he did in (was it really that long ago?) 2006. Liriano would have gotten a 2 on the BP scale.

The Bullpen Catcher believes if the Twins can link together a round of all five in the rotation earning 2's (a total of 10 points), it should push the Twins so far ahead in the Central quickly they will immediately be so far ahead in the standings, the playoffs will be set. The more BPC's starting pitching points (9's and 10's) the better the predictor of winning the, um, whatever they call the World Series trophy with the flags and all.


So here we go, game-by-game thus far:

Rotation #1:
Baker 0
Blackburn 1
Pavano 2
Slowey 2
Liriano 1
TOTAL: 6


Rotation #2
Baker 2
Blackburn 0
Pavano 2
Slowey 0
Liriano 2
TOTAL: 6

Thursday, February 4, 2010

O-Hud Set to Join Twins

Second baseman Orlando Hudson Makes Twins Central Division Favorites

It will be announced within the next few days that the Twins have come to an agreement with former Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Orlando Hudson. Hudson's signing will be squeezed between the signing of DH Jim Thome and what is sure to be the soon announcement of a 10-year-deal between the team and 2009 AL MVP Joe Mauer.

It's a hell of a run for the Twins. These signings not only prove Minnesota will be the Vegas favorite to win the Central Division, but also bodes well for future chances at Division, League and even World Series titles.

OHud is a two-time all-star (2007, 2009) and has won four Gold Gloves (AL 2005, NL 2006, NL 2007 and NL 2009).

Last year with the NL West Division Champion LA Dodgers, Hudson hit .283 with a .357 on-base-percentage.

In eight seasons (Toronto, Arizona and LA), Hudson has a career average of .282. He doesn't steal a ton of bases or hit for a lot of home run power (just 77 career homers), but in the seven full-time seasons he's been a starter, O averaged 28 doubles and 59 RBI per year. Those are solid stats for one of the best fielding second basemen in the last 30 years.

Will he make the Twins better? Simply put, with Hudson at second base, the Twins will be the strongest team up the middle (C-SS-2B-CF) in the American League.

A few more fun thoughts:
STARTERS (11)
C-Joe Mauer (2010 MVP, 2009-10 Gold Glove, 3-time All-Star, 3-time AL batting champ)
1B-Justin Morneau (2006 MVP, 3-time All-Star)
2B-Orlando Hudson (4-time Gold Glove, 2-time All-Star)
SS-JJ Hardy (2007 NL All-Star)
3B-Brendan Harris/Nick Punto
LF-Delmon Young
CF-Denard Span
RF-Michael Cuddyer
OF/DH-Jason Kubel
1B/DH-Jim Thome (5-time All-Star)
BENCH (3)
C-Jose Morales
INF-Matt Tolbert
INF-Alexi Casilla
STARTING PITCHING (6)
Scott Baker, RH
Carl Pavano, RH
Kevin Slowey, RH
Nick Blackburn, RH
Glen Perkins, LH
Francisco Liriano, LH (2006 All-Star)
RELIEF PITCHING (5)
Joe Nathan (4-time All-Star), RH
Matt Guerrier, RH
Jon Rauch, RH
Jose Mijares, LH
Jesse Crain or Pat Neshek, RH

New proposed lineup:
Denard Span (L), CF
Orlando Hudson (S), 2B
Joe Mauer (L), C
Justin Morneau (L), 1B
Michael Cuddyer (R), RF
Jason Kubel (L) or Jim Thome (L), DH
Delmon Young (R), LF
J.J. Hardy (R), SS
Brendan Harris (R), 3B

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Thome in the lineup!

Adding Jim Thome to the lefty-dominated Twins lineup is a great move. For a baseball-paltry $1.5 million contract, Thome joins a team with powerful lefties Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span and Jason Kubel. There isn't a team in the league with enough lefties to roll out in late innings against this crew.

It's just too bad we couldn't have had Thome for the last 3-4 years. He would have 650 career homers if he had played in the Metrodome any more ...

I'm going to slap a few lineups together for fun. I'm also going to bank on Joe Crede signing on with the Twins for one more year of seeing if he can stop being hurt all the time. That said, here's the prediction:

1. Denard Span, CF (L)
2. J.J. Hardy, SS (R)
3. Joe Mauer, C (L)
4. Justin Morneau, 1B (L)
5. Michael Cuddyer, RF (R)
6. Jim Thome, DH (L)
7. Joe Crede, 3B (R)
8. Delmon Young, LF (R)
9. Punto/Harris/Tolbert/Plouffe, 2B (R)

or

1. Span (L)
2. Harris (R)
3. Mauer (L)
4. Cuddyer (R)
5. Morneau (L)
6. Kubel (L)
7. Thome (L)
8. Hardy (R)
9. Punto (R)

or

1. Span (L)
2. Mauer (L)
3. Cuddyer (R)
4. Morneau (L)
5. Thome (L)
6. Kubel (L)
7. Crede (R)
8. Hardy (R)
9. Casilla (L/R)

It's actually hard to create lineups with all that out there. It will be interesting to see what Gardenhire does with this team.

Here's my current predicted 25-man active roster for Opening SnowOut:
C--Mauer, Morales
1B -- Morneau, Thome
2B -- Tolbert, Casilla
3B -- Crede, Harris
SS -- Hardy, Punto
OF -- Span, Young, Cuddyer, Kubel
SP (in order) -- Pavano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins
RP -- Swarzak, Liriano, Mijares, Guerrier, Neshek
CL -- Nathan

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Bullpen? We Don't Need No Stinkin' Bullpen!

Time to make a change

After two late-inning blown games in New York, it's time to deem the Twins bullpen an official mess. But it's not just those two losses in New York that appropriate a move to help the team, it's the last two season's worth of poor relief pitching that dictate finding a solution -- and fast.

The Twins starting pitching is solidifying as the season moves along. The Big Five are getting quality starts and the offense is generating enough run support to allow the starters to stay in games much longer than, say, three years ago. This should translate into wins. Instead, it's translated into a .500 baseball team that can't beat anyone outside the division.

The solution may be trading an outfielder. Heck, the Twins have plenty of those. The Twins even have a bunch of catching prospects -- certainly some team is suddenly interested in the skills of Jose Morales. Perhaps a prospect pitcher should be called up (ala Johan Santana, who was a reliever early in his career) or (gasp!) trade for a solid reliever.

Or, better yet, it may be time to move Joe Nathan and spend less on the closer position while dispersing money paid him instead to four solid setup men. Billy Beane and Terry Ryan certainly would agree a closer could be found somewhere in the organization. Beane's long-held postulation that pitching one inning is an easier find than a setup or long reliever has been proven time and again by Ryan. Take a look at: (a) LaTroy Hawkins, (b) Eddie Guardardo and (c) Joe Nathan.

Let's trot out Anthony Swarzak, Kevin Mulvey, Brian Duensing or even Phillip Humber for some relief time. It's time for the Twins front office to act like it actually sees what the fans have been seeing for two years now.

Friday, May 15, 2009

MLB Gameday

The Top MLB Innovation

Is there any better thing than the pitch-by-pitch approach used by MLB in its free Gameday package? Thursdays at work are significantly better with an afternoon Twins game on in a browser on my computer.

I often monitor multiple games when I'm not at the ballpark and it used to be an outstanding function while working on deadline at the newspaper.

Obviously MLB isn't the only website running pitch-by-pitch, but it's probably the best. It appears as if the programmers hired by the league are trying new innovations with it and trying to give the interface a more real-time, watching the game feel.

Watch NHL games on a gameday function. Or an NBA game. Every time I "watch" an NFL game on their Flash Player it's simply too frustrating to wait for the next play or the next comment put in by the person running it.

MLB's Gameday has them all beat. There are up-to-date statistics, links to each player's career stats, everything.

I know it sounds like an advertisement, but honestly, what innovations have better served baseball in recent years? Certainly not homerun replays or maple bats or long pant legs or that crappy font on Twins broadcasts which always has me wondering if the Twins are losing 1-0 or 7-0.