Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Morneau Missing In Triple Crown Talk

Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton and Tigers first baseman/DH Miguel Cabrera are all the talk in American League circles as potential Triple Crown (and assumable MVP) candidates this year.  The latest comes from Yahoo! Sports writer Tim Brown who claims Hamilton has the most probability of the two to win the first Triple Crown (lead league in batting average, home runs and RBI) since Carl Yastrzemski accomplished the feat in 1968.

Morneau and another strong possibility, Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano, are seemingly invisible to those talking Triple Crown.  While I don't think anyone will be winning a Triple Crown this season, I believe all four have equal chances at it. [Then again, who ever thought we'd see two perfect games within 20 days of each other and another that should have been a few days later?]

Here are the numbers:

Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano leads the AL in batting with a .358 average.
Cabrera is tied for first in home runs with White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko with 20 HR.
Cabrera leads the AL in RBI with 67.

Hamilton -- .343 (4th in AL), 18 HR (5th), 58 RBI (3rd) in 73 games played.
Cabrera -- .338 (5th), 20 HR (T-1st), 67 RBI (1st) in 74 games.
Morneau -- .347 (3rd), 15 HR (T-9th), 50 RBI (T-11th) in 74 games.
Cano -- .358 (1st), 15 HR (T-9th), 53 RBI (T-6th) in 76 games.

Any of these guys is a longshot. First, this is a league that has Seattle hitting machine Ichiro Suzuki (currently 6th in BA at .335). Secondly, these stats: Morneau is a career .285 hitter. Cano is .311 for his career. Cabrera has hit .313 for his career and Hamilton is a career .302 hitter. Lastly, Hamilton and Cabrera have both endured difficult battles with injuries and drug and/or alcohol addiction and relapses in past seasons. Morneau has slumped in the last month of recent years and Cano has a career-best 20 home runs and 97 RBI (not in the same season).

Triple Crown talk before July 4th? I'd bet heavily against any of them attaining it by the end of the season. No matter what, there are too many variables left in over one-half the season to even consider such discussion.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Is Thome biggest waste of Twins 2010 money?

In late January the Twins signed certain future Hall-of-Famer Jim Thome to a one-year $1.5 million contract. It looked like a steal of a deal: Thome ranked the second-best designated hitter in the 2009 season in an Associated Press story, just behind Adam Lind in every geeks' new favorite Sabermetrician statistic OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage).

Is it possible the Twins wasted their money on Thome? Granted, Thome is the 15th highest paid player on the team, but there must be some way to get him in the lineup more often. Recent experiments with putting Michael Cuddyer at third base puts Jason Kubel as a starter in right field. The Cuddy at third experiment was done in National League parks during interleague play and without a DH.

Once interleague play is over, the Twins need to place Thome back as a near-everyday DH and keep Cuddyer at third because using him as a pinch hitter more often than as a starter just isn't working.

So far this season Thome has played in 49 of the Twins 74 games. He's only had 107 official plate appearances for an average of 2.69 plate appearances per game. Compare that to Jason Kubel, who has played in 66 games with 264 plate appearances (4.0 appearances per game) and Justin Morneau (4.31). Thome is being used about as often at the plate as the recently demoted Brendan Harris (2.79 PAPG).

In 2010, Thome's gone 5-for-18 (.277) with just one RBI as a pinch-hitter. He's a career .230 hitter in pinch-hit situations. Additionally, when he gets on base, Thome's pinch hitting requires another roster move. It's inevitable that when he gets on base a pinch runner needs to replace him, thereby forcing Twins manager Ron Gardenhire to think of his pinch hitting Thome as a double-switch and depletion of his bench. In short, it requires Gardenhire to only pinch-hit Thome in the eighth or ninth innings.

Thome's stats so far this season: .243, 6 HR, 19 RBI, 9 2B, 24 BB, 32 SO.

It's time to use Thome where he's best: as a designated hitter. Given the Twins persistent problem of leaving runners in scoring position, it makes sense for Gardenhire to keep Cuddyer at third and get Thome more DH at bats.