Sunday, September 16, 2007

Terry Ryan gone just in time

Terry Ryan's sudden resignation may be a good indication of what the Pohlad family is cooking up for support of the 2008 season. Ryan stepping down indicates what will become obvious when the 2007 season officially ends: the Pohlads will stick to their money-pinching ways and force a change in the Twins roster.

Consider again:
  1. Torii Hunter is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. He will be very, very expensive;
  2. Johan Santana is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2008 season. He will command insane free agent numbers and it would be wise for the Twins to give him crazy money this winter to keep him happy;
  3. Michael Cuddyer is at the end of a one-year contract he signed just before heading to arbitration, so he'll be a free agent;
  4. Justin Morneau is at the end of a one-year contract and is arbitration-eligible this season;
  5. Joe Nathan, is wrapping up his two-year contract that the Twins have an option to extend one more year;
  6. Carlos Silva, is ending his one-year contract.

There are more decisions to be made as well, but these kinds of contract conundrums would force any front office person to the "consultant" position. It appears as if the Pohlads are setting a team salary limit similar to the almost $72 million they spent this season (19th highest in the Major Leagues). Terry Ryan is no idiot. He can add. Someone has to go. I'm guessing the owners said they are to keep someone important and drop someone important. Terry Ryan just didn't want to be the one holding the pen on that one.

Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Rotation time

By Bullpen Catcher

With Scott Baker toying with perfect games and Johan thinking about setting a game record in strikeouts of late, perhaps it's time to start looking at the future of the Twins rotation.
  • The top spot is set with Johan Santana. From there, who will be on the team, who will fill the next slots and who will step up garners some intrigue.
  • There's Baker (126 innings pitched this season, 8-6 record, 85 strikeouts and a 4.09 ERA), suddenly a solid piece of the Twins rotation.
  • Boof is slipping as fast as Baker is coming on. Bonser's stats look more like the big fat Sidney Ponson's of late (Boof: 160 IP, 6-12 record, 125 SO, 4.95 ERA).
  • Matt Garza's stats are outstanding, sans the phenomenal shellings he occasionally takes (56 IP, 3-5, 47 SO, 3.49 ERA).
  • What is going to come of Spittin' Carlos Silva? What pitcher is he, for real? Awkward stats again (174.3 IP, 11-13, 76 SO, 4.34 ERA).
  • Can the Twins truly count on bionic armed Francisco Liriano next year? Really? Come on. He had his arm reconstructed because he ruined it throwing that nasty shit he threw last year. If he even comes up with Boof numbers the lefty might give the team something it needs.
  • Kevin Slowey (37 IP, 3-0, 19 SO, 5.85 ERA) reminded me a lot of Garza last year (so perhaps 2008 will show another turnaround like Garza's).
  • Glen Perkins can hope at best to turn up as the next Mark Guthrie and probably nothing more considering his shoulder issues.

So what will become of this staff? Starting pitching will decide next year if the Twins bounce back and become contenders again. My feeling is the rotation will go something like:

1) Santana

2) Garza

3) Baker

4) Bonser

5) Slowey

Silva will either stay with the team for one more year (clearly as a way to appease his friend Santana and for no other reason) or head for free agency. I'm banking on free agency.

Baker deserves to be called Kevin Tapani more than my initial reaction to call Slowey Tap. Garza will be outstanding next year -- contending for the Cy Young with Santana.

Liriano will pitch out of the bullpen. I say this because the Twins are the most cautious team in the history of baseball in regard to moving players off the DL. Will he pitch as he did last year? Not a chance -- maybe forever. Don't expect anything from him for real until 2009.

It's not a bad rotation. All of them are in their mid-20s and are improving. The only wild card here involves a scenario where the team trades for a veteran pitcher or signs him as a free agent.

For now, though, we'll enjoy our Scott Baker near-no-hitter moments.

Monday, September 3, 2007

Mauer to stop catching? Ugh.

More calls for Mauer to move
Each injury has same result: Position change

By Bullpen Catcher

Joey Mauer's latest leg injury (this one a hamstring issue) has everyone coming out of the woodwork to tell us Mauer needs to switch to third base. Even the honorable Jim Souhan shot this out today.

Most of these folks argue Mauer's bat is too potent to miss from the lineup due to the horrors of playing catcher. Some talk of Mauer's now 6-foot-6 frame being way to lanky to bend down. There are arguments the Twins need a solid third baseman more than they need a solid catcher.

They're wrong. For now.

What indication does anyone have that Mauer would be any good at third? Third base, from experience, is probably the toughest position next to catcher on the field. But it's different from catching. Third basemen are constantly throwing from odd angles and deep spots, the throw is a long one and an overly zealous arm can give up more bases quickly. The balls coming off bats when Boofie is pitching can be near deadly. It's not a paradise. It's not simple. Plus, guess what you need to do at third? That's right, crouch and bend down.

If Mauer were to move, third is not the place. Think about how crappy Michael Cuddyer fared at the plate when he tried to play there. He obviously was all messed up, because the bottom line is he's been consistent at the plate for the Twins. The Nina, The Punto and The Santa Maria played well at third, but he is one of the best fielders in the American League. Problem with Punto: he hits like my niece.

Is Mauer going to be another Punto? There's no sign of that in him. Would he be another Cuddyer (or, for a further statement of such difficulties, another Alex Rodriguez -- look at his stats the first year he played third)? Most likely.

Oh, I forgot. Who will play catcher for this team if Mauer moves to third? Redmond? Um, folks, he's nearing 40. He's been a backup for years because that's his role (see Punto, Nick, for further evidence of a fill-in player at full time).

I'll give you this: Mauer can't catch forever. The knee surgery and the other leg injuries and just being too darn tall will take its toll. He's not a third baseman, though. He has three options in my mind: first base, right field and left field. Of those, right field seems most agreeable. Good right fielders don't need to be too mobile, they should have cannons for arms, they typically are the better hitters in the lineup. Cuddyer has been in the outfield -- and done well for the Twins -- and should be able to adjust to left field. First base is just too much Justin Morneau's for Mauer to consider, but maybe Mauer could take a few ground balls there later.

Jason Kubel, the consummate left fielder of the future for the Twins, would fetch a nice player in return if traded. This leaves the Twins looking for a catcher and third baseman in free agency.